How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the No COVID scenario), the COVID Base scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The COVID Base results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a No COVID scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a No COVID scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Balancing conservation priorities for nature and for people in Europe.

There is an urgent need to protect key areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people (NCP). However, different values of nature are rarely considered together in conservation planning. Here, we explore potential priority areas in Europe for biodiversity (all terrestrial vertebrates) and a set of cultural and regulating NCP while considering demand for these NCP. We quantify the spatial overlap between these priorities and their performance in representing different values of nature. We show that different priorities rarely coincide, except in certain irreplaceable ecosystems. Notably, priorities for biodiversity better represent NCP than the reverse. Theoretically, protecting an extra 5% of land has the potential to double conservation gains for biodiversity while also maintaining some essential NCP, leading to co-benefits for both nature and people.

Conventional land-use intensification reduces species richness and increases production: A global meta-analysis.

Most current research on land-use intensification addresses its potential to either threaten biodiversity or to boost agricultural production. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects of intensification on biodiversity and yield. To determine the responses of species richness and yield to conventional intensification, we conducted a global meta-analysis synthesizing 115 studies which collected data for both variables at the same locations. We extracted 449 cases that cover a variety of areas used for agricultural (crops, fodder) and silvicultural (wood) production. We found that, across all production systems and species groups, conventional intensification is successful in increasing yield (grand mean + 20.3%), but it also results in a loss of species richness (-8.9%). However, analysis of sub-groups revealed inconsistent results. For example, small intensification steps within low intensity systems did not affect yield or species richness. Within high-intensity systems species losses were non-significant but yield gains were substantial (+15.2%). Conventional intensification within medium intensity systems revealed the highest yield increase (+84.9%) and showed the largest loss in species richness (-22.9%). Production systems differed in their magnitude of richness response, with insignificant changes in silvicultural systems and substantial losses in crop systems (-21.2%). In addition, this meta-analysis identifies a lack of studies that collect robust biodiversity (i.e. beyond species richness) and yield data at the same sites and that provide quantitative information on land-use intensity. Our findings suggest that, in many cases, conventional land-use intensification drives a trade-off between species richness and production. However, species richness losses were often not significantly different from zero, suggesting even conventional intensification can result in yield increases without coming at the expense of biodiversity loss. These results should guide future research to close existing research gaps and to understand the circumstances required to achieve such win-win or win-no-harm situations in conventional agriculture.

Use of demand for and spatial flow of ecosystem services to identify priority areas.

Policies and research increasingly focus on the protection of ecosystem services (ESs) through priority-area conservation. Priority areas for ESs should be identified based on ES capacity and ES demand and account for the connections between areas of ES capacity and demand (flow) resulting in areas of unique demand-supply connections (flow zones). We tested ways to account for ES demand and flow zones to identify priority areas in the European Union. We mapped the capacity and demand of a global (carbon sequestration), a regional (flood regulation), and 3 local ESs (air quality, pollination, and urban leisure). We used Zonation software to identify priority areas for ESs based on 6 tests: with and without accounting for ES demand and 4 tests that accounted for the effect of ES flow zone. There was only 37.1% overlap between the 25% of priority areas that encompassed the most ESs with and without accounting for ES demand. The level of ESs maintained in the priority areas increased from 23.2% to 57.9% after accounting for ES demand, especially for ESs with a small flow zone. Accounting for flow zone had a small effect on the location of priority areas and level of ESs maintained but resulted in fewer flow zones without ES maintained relative to ignoring flow zones. Accounting for demand and flow zones enhanced representation and distribution of ESs with local to regional flow zones without large trade-offs relative to the global ES. We found that ignoring ES demand led to the identification of priority areas in remote regions where benefits from ES capacity to society were small. Incorporating ESs in conservation planning should therefore always account for ES demand to identify an effective priority network for ESs.

Harmonizing Biodiversity Conservation and Productivity in the Context of Increasing Demands on Landscapes.

Biodiversity conservation and agricultural production are often seen as mutually exclusive objectives. Strategies for reconciling them are intensely debated. We argue that harmonization between biodiversity conservation and crop production can be improved by increasing our understanding of the underlying relationships between them. We provide a general conceptual framework that links biodiversity and agricultural production through the separate relationships between land use and biodiversity and between land use and production. Hypothesized relationships are derived by synthesizing existing empirical and theoretical ecological knowledge. The framework suggests nonlinear relationships caused by the multifaceted impacts of land use (composition, configuration, and intensity). We propose solutions for overcoming the apparently dichotomous aims of maximizing either biodiversity conservation or agricultural production and suggest new hypotheses that emerge from our proposed framework.

Impact of CMV infection on acute rejection and long-term renal allograft function: a systematic analysis in patients with protocol biopsies and indicated biopsies.

BACKGROUND: Higher rates of acute rejection (AR) and reduced graft survival have been reported in patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection, but an association between these factors remains controversial. METHODS: In this study, serial protocol biopsies (PBs) and clinically indicated biopsies (IBs) from a large cohort of renal allograft recipients (n ¼ 594) were analyzed to examine the relation between CMV and AR. RESULTS: Patients with CMV were more likely to receive IB (85 of the 153 patients; 56%) compared to patients without CMV (138 of 441 patients; 32%; P = 0.003). However, this did not translate into a greater number of patients with episodes of acute cellular rejection on histopathology in IBs. Analysis of PBs revealed a significantly higher number of episodes of rejection per patient with CMV infection (P = 0.04), but only in a subgroup of patients with triple immunosuppression. Long-term graft function post-transplantation was analyzed in four different subgroups according to CMV infection and/or AR. Differences in renal function were apparent within the first 6 weeks after transplantation and persisted during follow-up, with the best renal function in patients without AR or CMV, whereas patients with both AR and CMV had the worst (P < 0.012 at 1 year; P < 0.001 at 2 years). On average, the latter group had significantly older donors and more often delayed graft function. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggests that the link between CMV and AR is far less significant than previously thought. Outcome in patients with CMV may be more determined by coexisting conditions like high donor age and delayed graft function.

Comparison of the performance of direct fluorescent antibody staining, a point-of-care rapid antigen test and virus isolation with that of RT-PCR for the detection of novel 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus in respiratory specimens.

Although infections with the novel pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus (A/H1N1/2009) appeared to be relatively mild during the first summer of circulation ('off season'), there has been significant morbidity and hospitalization and several fatal cases. Thus, rapid detection of A/H1N1/2009 is crucial for efficient treatment and infection control measures. In contrast to seasonal influenza, where point-of-care (POC) rapid antigen tests and direct fluorescent antibody (DFA) staining ensure rapid detection, diagnosis of A/H1N1/2009 has so far been based on RT-PCR. This study retrospectively compared the performance of the Quidel QuickVue POC test, DFA staining and virus isolation with that of RT-PCR for A/H1N1/2009 detection in 526 respiratory specimens collected during the first wave of the outbreak from May to September 2009. A/H1N1/2009 was detected in 9.1% (48/526) of samples. One hundred and thirty-seven of the A/H1N1/2009 PCR-negative samples were additionally tested using a RealAccurate Respiratory RT-PCR panel, revealing other respiratory viruses (mainly entero/rhino- and adenoviruses) in 42.3% (58/137). All methods analysed detected A/H1N1/2009 with excellent specificity but different sensitivities (POC test: 18.2%; DFA staining: 38.7%; virus isolation: 45.7%). Therefore, the POC test was not suitable for diagnosis, detecting A/H1N1/2009 only if present in high concentrations (corresponding median Ct value=19.0; range=16.5-21.4). DFA staining was also able to detect A/H1N1/2009 in specimens with a lower virus concentration (median Ct value=24.0; range=16.5-29.8). Virus isolation, which was positive after a median time of 7.5 days, was too time-consuming. In summary, DFA staining is superior to POC testing and may be appropriate for patients expected to have a rather high level of virus replication. Nevertheless, in DFA-negative specimens, A/H1N1/2009 should be excluded by RT-PCR.

Shedding of the endothelial receptor tyrosine kinase Tie2 correlates with leukemic blast burden and outcome after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for AML.

Angiogenesis plays an important role in the growth and viability of hematologic malignancies. Emerging data suggest a crucial involvement of the endothelial-specific Tie2 receptor and its antagonistic ligand Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in this process. The purpose of this study was to elucidate whether the soluble domain of the Tie2 receptor (sTie2)predicts outcome in patients with acute myeloid leukemia(AML) undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation(HSCT). Serum levels of sTie2 and Ang-2 were measured by ELISA in 181 AML patients before conditioning for HSCT. The median follow-up time was 22 months after HSCT. Pre-HSCT sTie2 levels were significantly higher inpatients (median 2.2 (range 1.8-3.0) ng/mL) compared to healthy controls (1.3 (0.9-1.6); p<0.0001). Elevated sTie2 levels were independently associated with active AML but did not relate to cytogenetics/mutational status before transplantation. Logistic regression analysis identified elevated sTie2 (odds ratio (OR) 3.07 (95% confidence interval(CI; 1.56-6.04), p=0.001) as a strong predictor for disease relapse and poor overall survival after HSCT. In a multimarker approach the highest risk for relapse was observed inpatients with both elevated sTie2 and elevated Ang-2 (OR 4.07, (95% CI 1.79-9.25) p<0.0001), as well as patients with both elevated Ang-2 and elevated bone marrow blast count (OR 4.16, (95% CI 1.88-7.36) p<0.0001). Elevated serum sTie2 levels were related to active leukemia,correlated with the percentage of leukemic blasts in the bone marrow, and independently predicted relapse in AML patients after allogeneic HSCT. Furthermore, our data indicate that Tie2 shedding and Ang-2 release seem to reflect overlapping, but nevertheless distinctive features in leukemia-associated neoangiogenesis.

Incidence of hepatotropic viruses in biliary atresia.

Biliary atresia (BA) is the most frequent indication for paediatric liver transplantation. We tested the hypothesis of a viral aetiology of this disease by screening liver samples of a large number of BA patients for the common human hepatotropic viruses. Moreover, we correlated our findings to the expression of Mx protein, which has been shown to be significantly up-regulated during viral infections. Seventy-four liver biopsies (taken during Kasai portoenterostomy) were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for DNA viruses (herpes simplex virus [HSV], Epstein-Barr virus [EBV], varicella zoster virus [VZV], cytomegalovirus [CMV], adenovirus, parvovirus B19 and polyoma BK) and RNA viruses (enteroviruses, rotavirus and reovirus 3). Mx protein expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. Virus DNA/RNA was found in less than half of the biopsies (8/74 CMV, 1/74 adenovirus; 21/64 reovirus, 1/64 enterovirus). A limited number presented with double infection. Patients that had detectable viral RNA/DNA in their liver biopsies were significantly older than virus-free patients (P = 0.037). The majority (54/59) of the liver biopsies showed expression of Mx proteins in hepatocytes, bile ducts and epithelium. Our data suggest that the known hepatotropic viruses do not play a major role in the aetiology and progression of BA. Their incidence appears to be, rather, a secondary phenomenon. Nonetheless, the inflammatory response in the livers of BA patients mimics that observed during viral infections.

Angiopoietin-2 predicts disease-free survival after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with high-risk myeloid malignancies.

Emerging data suggest a critical role for bone marrow angiogenesis in hematologic malignancies. The angiopoietin/Tie ligand-receptor system is an essential regulator of this process. We evaluated whether circulating angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is a predictor for the probability of disease-free survival (DFS) in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) for high-risk acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome. Ang-2 was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in serum from 20 healthy controls and 90 patients with acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome before conditioning for HSCT. Circulating Ang-2 was elevated in patients (median, 2.21 ng/mL; range, 0.18-48.84 ng/mL) compared with controls (median, 0.87 ng/mL; range, 0.27-4.51 ng/mL; P < .001). Multivariate analyses confirmed the independent prognostic impact of Ang-2 (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-4.76, P = .005), percentage of bone marrow infiltration (HR = 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.29, P = .033), and chemotherapy cycles before HSCT (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08, P = .048). Regression tree analysis detected optimal cutoff values for Ang-2 and recursively identified bone marrow blasts and Ang-2 as the best predictors for DFS. Because few predictors for DFS exist in the setting of allo-HSCT, Ang-2 may be used as a readily available powerful biomarker to pre-estimate DFS and may open new perspectives for risk-adapted treatment of high-risk myeloid malignancies.